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Another Amaing Article From Varian: The Visionary Of Nintendo's Fourth Pillar!


To kick off the New Year, I present you with this question: Who said the below quote?



Banal market strategies! Oh that phrase! But here, dear reader, are a list of choices to answer the question.

Who spoke that quote?

A ) Reggie Fils-Aime (Vice President of Sales and Marketing)

B ) Satoru Iwata (President of Nintendo)

C ) Shigeru Miyamoto (Director and General Manager of Nintendo Entertainment Analysis and Development)

D ) A Website Reporter

E ) Other


If you chose A…

Reggie certainly does sound like that. However, Reggie did not say those exact words but has expressed the same exact sentiment:

”[Nintendo is] focused on creating disruptive technologies, approaching the market in a different way offering… innovation to the consumer. We can't simply expand the market. If that's all we try to do, slowly this industry will die. It is our responsibility to make games for all skill levels. Technology can't advance the business. The idea that Revolution doesn't follow the conventional path of game systems. That's what we're about; disruptive technologies, new ways to think about the market place, and driving the industry forward.”

If you chose B…

This is understandable. Iwata has been very vocal saying that mysterious quote’s identical content. Here is a sample of how Iwata sounds, this is taken from January, 2004.

"Games are stuck now. Game development is deadlocked today. Games have grown in pursuit of more beautiful graphics and more complex systems for 20 years, but that growth is no longer translating into success, and games have stopped selling. The situation won't change if we keep expanding in a conventional way. Instead, we want to offer a gameplay experience which players haven't encountered until now."

If you chose C…

You would be very close! Miyamoto has repeatedly expressed interest in making games for casual gamers.

”We're going to continue to create new and unique experiences for people that are currently playing games and hardcore gamers. But, at the same time, we need to continue to invite new people into gaming, because those are the people who are going to become the next generation of hardcore gamers. Obviously, this focus on hardcore gamers is still very prominent in our development. That's why we're making Zelda, and sports games are obviously very important as well. With our new interface that we've introduced, we feel that sports games are actually going to get simpler and more fun to control.”

If you chose D…

Not even close. When have game sites talked about the need to go for casual or non-gamers? Though, game sites sound like the quote because they quote the other Nintendo executives. Most of the game sites rarely approach the game industry from a realistic business perspective aside from the standard market share horserace.

Sample IGN quote: ”Revolution is not being positioned as a competitor to either Xbox 360 or PlayStation 3. Nintendo has instead chosen to design a console that will be very affordable for consumers. For that very reason, say developers in the know, the Big N has opted out of filling the system with a massive supply of expensive RAM.”

If you chose E…

Congratulations, you are correct. But with this choice, can you insert the person who said the beginning quote? After all, the quote is ripe with business analysis and pregnant with content of future Nintendo speeches. So who said it?

Surprise! A 23 year old art student whose name is Pablo Belmonte.



Pablo the Graphic Wizard

Pablo Belmonte is known for taking credit for creating the “Nintendo ON” video. With this New Year, we must remember that there would be significantly less rumors and speculation if that six minute video had never showed up.

But this post will not enter the realm of speculation. Nintendo says it’s not ‘real’. Pablo took credit. Obviously, his touch can be seen in the Mario and Samus parts at the end. That is enough. (However, Pablo refuses to admit that it is fake, only that it is not ‘real’. “It is not a fake, it is a complaint,” he says. Oh that silly Pablo…)

“When did Pablo say this quote, Mr. Varian?” When hasn’t he said it? I ripped the quote off this image from the 1up website:

http://www.1up.com/media?id=2060010

Pablo has taken the publicity of the Nintendo ON video to give the world his business analysis. This, of course, happens all the time from 23 year old Spanish art students.



This is a very silly comment for Pablo to make with all his art/video/sound/business knowledge. Nintendo is a corporation like any other and is very interested in commercialization. We would not have eaten Mario and Zelda cereal in the eighties if not for that. Why would he, with his technological and business genius, give a mighty corporation like Nintendo the status of ‘beloved’ and say it only cares about bringing new concepts? Yes, you can point to the cross-pad and controller evolution, but this is the same company who chose cartridges over discs and completely ignored online play.

“But Varian, maybe Nintendo told him to say that, tee hee hee.” Shut up, you speculator. Pablo is simply a multi-faceted genius who can, not only single handily do astounding videos that dwarf most professional done stuff within a week, he also understands the future technological trends and will give precise and intriguing market and business commentary. Saying that he is working with Nintendo to pretend to be some ‘disgruntled fan’ to stir up the fan base is just too far fetched.

(To see a collection of Pablo’s artistic work, view http://video.google....151367520021&q= )

Pablo the Business-Man

Pablo has many skills! This is Pablo on business:



This is interesting coming from Pablo. I’ve done a couple of stunts in game development, however I will put my trust in those who have been in it for decades. I asked them, “Can there be another video game crash like 1984?”

They said, yes. Consoles are released every five or six years. All it would take, they told me, is a company to start releasing a new console every 2 or 3 years to disrupt the console cycle. This would severely harm development (as they have to keep adopting new machines) and hurt consumers (who have to keep buying new machines). Cutting short the console cycle would begin the dominoes to crash the industry.

Microsoft is the first console company to break the cycle. The Xbox was released in November 2001 with the Xbox 360 released in November 2005. “Big deal, Varian. That is only four years.” Look at the falling sales data and you tell me. While some of the decline can be blamed on games and consoles believing they are in the technology business (rather than the entertainment business), shortening the console cycle even by a year has hit sales across all the home consoles. The Wall Street Journal says that gamers think the next generation is here so they are saving their money for the next consoles (or maybe not at all?). Pity the developers for the first Xbox as the Xbox 1 sales have plummeted by 75% since the Xbox 360’s introduction. With games taking years to develop, cutting even a year off a console cycle is a big deal. Who’s to say that Microsoft won’t release another console in the next few years?



Like a boss getting harder with each new level, Nintendo’s opponents have only grown more monstrous: Atari, Sega, the behemoth Sony, and now Microsoft. What is unique with Microsoft is that it is the first console company to not care about making money in the games industry. The aim is to take over the market and become profitable through sales of games and peripherals. With massive budgets, Microsoft can stab the industry with its online service and unleash a tsunami of marketing.

No wonder Nintendo ON was released the day Xbox 360 was unveiled.

And no wonder Nintendo’s marketing of the Revolution has been little more than showing clips of declining game sales. Nintendo sees the Revolution to reverse stagnating sales almost as if 1984 was in their eyes. http://video.google....862672743260&q=

But Pablo knew that interrupting the console cycle would lead to ruin, and so released his Nintendo ON at the Xbox 360 unveiling can be nothing more than coincidence, can it?



Wow. This is precisely what Reggie has been saying lately.

“It is because of conspiracy, Varian!” What? Of course not. You know as well as I do that all game players think of the developers. When you try to buy the over-marketed hyped expensive title, your 23 year old art student friend always protests and begins business rants about how we must help the developers. I mean, this always happens.

Pablo the Inventor

But the most incredible of talents Pablo has is that of a visionary. Let him describe his vision for the future:



Keep in mind that this technology he describes actually exists today.



The Revmote will allow almost any control input with its additions and clever uses in its ‘motion’. (It changes from a sword to a frying pan depending on the motion.)



Pulling? Dropping?



This was already demonstrated by the chick in the TGS video. Simply by flicking her wrist, Mario jumped. This coincidence just shows how much of a genius Pablo is.



This is worth mentioning? Amazing he cares about these little details!





Pablo seems quite certain all this can be on consoles today.



This is huge. How did Pablo think this up? This feature itself, not the motion controller or a visor, would be a true revolution. This fundamentally changes how we play games and how we see games.

Take the example of a ‘Duck Hunt 2’. You take the visor and controller and go outside. The visor places ‘ducks’ up at the sky. You use the wireless controller to aim and shoot, the controller’s movement and aim signals talking to the visor, and the visor talking to the main unit (which is so small that it could be plugged almost anywhere).

Imagine playing capture the flag with this set up. In Pablo’s vision, when one looks down at their hands, he does not see a controller. He sees a laser rifle. Or a bow. Or a sword. When one player fires his ‘controller’ (gun) at one another, they see the ‘explosion’ through the visor. If the ‘explosion’ is in the range of a player’s controller, it is registered, and the controller and visor are ‘shut off’ for the game has registered that player as ‘dead’. Items could be ‘picked up’ and enhance the player’s ‘gun’. Is Pablo only describing a ‘virtual laser tag’?



There would be more. We already saw in the TGS video how the controller could simulate a tennis racquet. But why play in front of a TV? Why not take the game outside with such visors? “But why not use real balls and racquets, Varian?” Simply because there are not tennis courts everywhere. Also, you would not have to chase down a bouncing ball. And the ‘ball’ would bounce off any surface, including water. Instead of being in a dark room in front of a monitor, you would be running around outside. But it could be more than just ‘tennis’. Space monsters could attack you while playing. You would have to smack them away with the controller. With this, boring things become interesting again as games fill up entire rooms. The entire image of gaming changes. Revolution, indeed!

Now, combine this with the ‘making’ of games (as Pablo talked about and showed in the ON video). Part of the appeal of Nintendogs in Japan was that many people could not own dogs. In stores in Japan, Nintendogs was sold along with patches of grass (apparently with such limited land, some people cannot own grassy lawns). Why not make a game where your environment is a huge grassy field? If you live along the shore, why not plug yourself into a virtual world of mountains? And if you live in mountains, why not put yourself into a virtual beach? If you live on the plains, put yourself into a virtual forest and on a forest, why not choose virtual plains? Because of the cities everywhere, why not put yourself in an environment where you see all the stars and perhaps make constellations like in Animal Crossing: Wild World. Imagine flight simulators. Imagine exploring the ocean depths. Imagine traveling throughout the Milky Way.

Would a non-gamer be interested in this? You better believe it. This is why I wonder how people ‘assume’ that, with Pablo’s vision, a visor would turn off non-gamers. A high price tag would turn away non-gamers, but that is the only barrier I can see. A visor does not mean putting yourself into a virtual world, it is also taking the virtual world outside.

Did a handheld with two screens and touch pad turn away non-gamers? No, because the software was designed with the hardware in mind. DS games that attract non-gamers, Nintendogs and Animal Crossing most particularly, use the DS’s features to create a virtual world where you do not ‘beat’ the game.

In the same way, the Revolution’s new controller does the same. The Revmote performs more input and infinite more variety than a standard controller. But we know this will attract non-gamers if it is used properly due to its immersive possibilities. In Pablo’s vision, a visor would be no different.



Someone might ask, “How does Pablo know this?” Fool! We all know that 23 year old Spanish art students keep up with legal patents and technological trends of immersive possibilities!



But after those few days, what was shown was disappointing. Nintendo usually showed grandiose E3 performances while the 2005 one was very much low key. “Or was it, Varian? Perhaps the ON video was part of the E3 presentation!” Hush, you conspiracy theorist!



Which is exactly what the ON is… a ‘simple’ console…

That can…

-Use your body as the controller, completely motion based.
-Use a visor to put yourself into the world…
-…or play games outside in new ways.
-Make your own games on one side of the brain.

Pablo has a strange idea of ‘simple’.



The casual users! Pablo wants to target the casual users!

Remember when you first heard Nintendo announce that they wanted to seek out casual and non-gamers? Didn’t you have that sinking feeling in your stomach that felt like Nintendo would come out with dumbed down games similar to a souped up Solitaire? Current gamers normally wouldn’t want their game company to make games for ‘non-gamers’. Only those trained in business analysis would see a shrinking market and a need for a change of approach (Pablo said this before Reggie began making his rounds on the ‘shrinking’ of the game market speeches). Therefore, Pablo must be as insightful in reading markets as Reggie is.

What is most perplexing is that the common complaint from users about the ON is, “Nintendo would never make that because it goes against their vision of attracting non-gamers and casuals.” Yet, the maker of the video, Pablo, says the exact opposite! That his vision for a new console, the ON, would attract non-gamers and casuals!



And this completes the quote at the beginning. Here, Pablo puts on his business hat and talks about how a global entertainment company should innovate. Such wisdom coming from a 23 year old art student! And how prophetic it was to Nintendo’s following speeches!



So ends Pablo’s rant. Pablo, self-described ‘simple fan’, is hoping Nintendo thinks something up that goes beyond the ON.

On May 11, 2004 at Nintendo's pre-Electronics Entertainment Expo 2004 press conference (in Los Angeles, California), Nintendo announced the code-name ‘Revolution’. But near after, a bizarre quote emerged.

The Big N has stated that the "Revolution" will not be a successor to the Game Cube. As Nintendo Senior Managing Director Extraordinaire Yoshiro Mori told some analysts recently, "This won't be a continuation, but rather something entirely different."

Is the Revolution a Nintendo Fourth Pillar? Could Pablo have described it with playing games ‘outside’ with the controller and visor?

There have been several ‘insiders’ from Revealing the Revolution, N5_dev, and Mr. INC’s blog. Interestingly, all three admit in varying degree the existence of a visor. When asked about Pablo’s vision (of games outside the console), the answer is identical from all three: they adamantly refuse to discuss how the games are seen or played. For the moment, let us say these insiders are ‘true’. This means that if a visor existed, it would not be the ‘revolution’ as they freely discuss that. However, Pablo’s vision of the fourth pillar is something they refuse to even deny.

But what are we to make of Mori’s quote? I simply think that the ‘fourth pillar’ was combined with the successor of the Game cube. The DS is said to be the ‘third pillar’ with Nintendo stating that the DS is not the successor of the Gameboy Advance. DS sales don’t appear to have hurt the GBA. However, with the DS’s popularity, it appears that Nintendo may turn the DS into that successor. Due to the PSP launch and the possibility of rejection to the DS, it may have been coined the ‘third pillar’ in case it failed.

In the end, the Nintendo community has only two choices to make with Pablo Belmonte. Which one sounds more plausible?

1) He is multi-talented genius at the age of 23 (yet still unemployed), not only light years ahead of everyone in graphic video work but…
-A business analyst
-A market analyst
-Worries about rising cost of game development (so kind of him).
-Wants Nintendo’s next console to include non-gamers and casuals (what a coincidence!)
-Understands what can crash the game industry and correctly identifies it (a change in console cycles).
-Has been reading latest technology patents (how else would he know such technology is possible?)
-Says identical things to Reggie, Iwata, and Miyamoto with rants when asked about the ON.
-A vast knowledge of video game technology
-Visionary of Nintendo’s Fourth Pillar

2) Pablo has not been completely truthful
-Enter your conspiracy theory here.

So which do you believe? There is no other choice. Choose one.



Now, some may ask, “Varian, this post is exceedingly long.” This is because Pablo exceedingly rants. And there is even more Pablo strange-quotes to go through. There are also other elements that must be put into context. What does the Mintendo video mean? (the video that mocks the Revolution’s controller) What about the latest workbook video that places ON as his fan fiction? What about his numerous other interviews? What is going on with all these ‘insider’ blogs? Only one answer unifies all the discrepancies. But that is for the second part.


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